The Geopolitical Role of UAE and Saudi Arabia in the Post-Ukrainian War Era
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 marked a significant turning point in global geopolitics, reshaping alliances, economic dependencies, and strategic partnerships. In this evolving landscape, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia have emerged as key players, leveraging their economic strength, energy resources, and diplomatic agility to navigate the complexities of a multipolar world. Both nations have sought to balance relations with traditional Western allies, Russia, and China while asserting their influence in regional and global affairs. Their roles in the post-Ukrainian war era reflect a broader shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics, where Gulf states are increasingly positioning themselves as independent power brokers rather than mere clients of superpowers.
Economic and Energy Diplomacy
One of the most critical aspects of the UAE and Saudi Arabia’s geopolitical strategy in the post-Ukrainian war era is their use of energy diplomacy. The war disrupted global oil and gas markets, leading to heightened demand for Gulf energy supplies. Saudi Arabia, as the de facto leader of OPEC+, played a pivotal role in managing oil production levels, often resisting Western pressure to increase output to stabilize prices. This demonstrated Riyadh’s willingness to prioritize its own economic interests and strategic partnerships with Russia over alignment with the United States and Europe. Similarly, the UAE has capitalized on its position as a major oil exporter while diversifying its economy to reduce long-term dependency on hydrocarbons. Both nations have used their energy leverage to strengthen ties with emerging powers like China and India, which remain heavily reliant on Gulf oil.
Beyond energy, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have expanded their economic influence through sovereign wealth funds and strategic investments. The UAE’s Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) have become major players in global finance, acquiring stakes in critical industries worldwide. These investments not only generate economic returns but also enhance political influence, allowing both countries to build networks of dependency and soft power. Additionally, initiatives like Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and the UAE’s focus on becoming a global tech and logistics hub underscore their ambitions to transition into knowledge-based economies, further solidifying their geopolitical relevance.
Diplomatic Balancing Act
The post-Ukrainian war era has seen the UAE and Saudi Arabia adopt a nuanced diplomatic approach, maintaining relationships with competing global powers without fully aligning with any single bloc. While both nations remain security partners of the United States, they have also deepened ties with Russia and China. Saudi Arabia’s decision to join the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as a dialogue partner and the UAE’s participation in BRICS (which expanded in 2024 to include Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt) reflect their strategic diversification. This balancing act allows them to mitigate risks in an increasingly fragmented international order.
Moreover, both countries have played active roles in mediating conflicts, positioning themselves as neutral intermediaries. The UAE facilitated prisoner exchanges between Russia and Ukraine, while Saudi Arabia hosted talks on the Ukraine crisis, demonstrating their ability to engage with all sides. This mediation role enhances their international standing and provides them with diplomatic leverage. At the regional level, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have pursued détente with former rivals, such as Iran and Turkey, to reduce tensions and create a more stable environment for economic growth. The Saudi-Iran normalization deal brokered by China in 2023 was a landmark moment, showcasing Riyadh’s willingness to engage in pragmatic diplomacy despite historical animosities.
Military and Security Strategies
The UAE and Saudi Arabia have also recalibrated their military and security strategies in response to the shifting geopolitical landscape. While both countries continue to rely on U.S. security guarantees, they have sought greater autonomy by developing domestic defense industries and diversifying arms suppliers. Saudi Arabia’s increased purchases of Russian and Chinese weaponry signal a desire to reduce dependence on Western military exports. The UAE, meanwhile, has invested heavily in drone technology and cyber capabilities, emerging as a significant regional military power.
The war in Ukraine has also reinforced the importance of food and energy security for Gulf states. Both the UAE and Saudi Arabia have expanded agricultural investments abroad to ensure stable food supplies, particularly in Africa and Eastern Europe. Additionally, their involvement in conflicts such as Yemen and Libya has evolved, with a greater emphasis on political settlements rather than prolonged military engagements. This shift reflects a broader trend of Gulf states prioritizing economic resilience over costly regional interventions.
Conclusion
In the post-Ukrainian war era, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have solidified their positions as influential geopolitical actors. Through energy diplomacy, economic diversification, and strategic balancing, they have navigated the complexities of a multipolar world while enhancing their global standing. Their ability to engage with rival powers, mediate conflicts, and invest in long-term economic transformation underscores their growing autonomy and ambition. As the international order continues to evolve, the UAE and Saudi Arabia are likely to play an even more prominent role in shaping regional and global dynamics, demonstrating that Middle Eastern powers can no longer be overlooked in the geopolitical arena.