GEOWATCH – Russia

Is Russia Losing India?

India-Russia have been almost de-facto allies during cold war. Besides 1971 treaty, defense trade, cooperation in science and technology, convergence on International issues – there are strong geopolitical imperatives for India and Russia to work closely. Though there has been temporary setbacks in relations, yet both were able to revitalize partnership by revising 1971 treaty, starting strategic partnership in 2000, upgrading it to special and privileged strategic partnership in 2010.

Seriousness of the Partnership – Sergey Lavrov, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation held that, the type of treatment Russia gives to India is extraordinary –

1. Russia never put conditions on the transfer of sensitive technologies.
2. Civil Nuclear Cooperation.
3. India has taken Nuclear Submarines on lease – which is exceptional (Akula, Chakra).
4. Joint development of Brahmos.

Areas of Convergence – Foreign Policies do not operate in vacuum, they are shaped by various determinants. Therefore, in case of India and Russia the major drivers of partnership are –

1. Geography – As per Kautilya’s wisdom, India and Russia are natural allies. Since both are placed in proximity to China, they emerge as the natural partners. There is a huge convergence of interests with respect to Afghanistan and Central Asia, hence geography will always remain the major driver of relationship and that is why relationship has not changed much despite the collapse of USSR. Thus, geography is not only the permanent determinant but also the most influential factor.
2. World Order – Immediately after the end of cold war, when both the countries are trying to find the new narratives, they had convergence over the importance of multipolar world order and need to check the unilateralism.
3. Trade and Commerce – Though, Russia remains the leading supplier of the defense equipment, but excluding defense, India Russia bilateral trade is much below the potential (10 billion USD). Despite efforts it has not been possible to increase the trade due to structural factors – like absence of conducive environment for trade, poor connectivity, banking infrastructure etc.

Though in recent past there is improvement is Civil Nuclear Commerce – Russia is building 6 Nuclear power plants in Kundakulam, it has started providing S-400 to India, after the uncertainty over INSTC decision has been taken to start Chennai-Vladivostok Corridor.

1. Energy Interests – David D Malone in his book ‘Does the Elephant Dance?’ Held that “while India looks to Europe for long-term cooperation in reforming its energy sector, it looks to Russia to help satisfy its immediate and growing need for imported oil and natural gas.” Petroleum oil and other fuel items (mineral fuels, mineral oils and products of their distillation; bituminous substances, mineral waxes) accounted for 84% of India’s total imports from Russia. Fertilizers being at second, along with fuels accounts for 91% of the total imports.

Areas of Divergence – In recent years, it was felt that the relationship has lost the momentum because of certain developments in recent years –

1. Russia’s dependency on China due to the newly emerging cold war scenario, compelled Russia to strengthen its relationship with China. And after Galwan Clashes there is not anything normal between India and China.
2. As India is diversifying defense imports, the Russia is diversifying the buyers – cooperation with Pakistan.
3. After the Russian Aggression over Ukraine, though initially India shows reluctance but at Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s remarks toward Russian President that “today’s era is not of war” and that Putin should “move onto a path of peace.” Comes with a greater degree of surprise.

Along with this, Russia has very strong reservations with the Idea of Indo-Pacific and QUAD and India is not comfortable with the Russia’s approach towards Afghanistan, as Russia has got closely aligned with China and Pakistan in the region. The other demotivating factor is Russia’s declining share in the Defense trade and failure to increase bilateral trade up to the mark.

However, these facts on ground adversely impacting the relationship is more due to the lack of understanding of India Russia relationship. Russia in its National Security Strategy Document mentions India as a Strategic Partner at par with China. Even the Greater Eurasian Initiative, Eurasian Economic Union, Eastern Economic Forum Summit of Russia gives priority to India. And the India’s Arctic Policy gives centrality to Russia. According to recently published data by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. India’s bilateral trade with Russia is soared to an all-time high of USD 18229.03 million in just five months (April-August 2022) mainly because of oil and fertilizers, making Russia, India’s seventh biggest trading partner – up from its 25^th position last year.

Rajiv Sikri, in his book ‘Challenges and Strategy: Rethinking India’s Foreign Policy’ held that, “India-Russia relations will not have a sound foundation and long-term stability unless trade and economic cooperation increases and diversifies.” Which highlights the need for reformed Economic ties between these two countries.

Hence, though there are serious concerns, there is a need to address these misconceptions by regular dialogues at all levels. Along with this, both countries should not over depend upon the personality factors as though successive Indian governments have pursued a consistent policy towards Russia, Russian conceptions solely depends upon the considerations of President Putin, hence for that there is a need to broaden and deepen the engagements.

PS Raghavan in his essay in the book ‘India’s Foreign Policy in the Post Covid World’ held that, they have endorsed the strategy of broad-based, multi-sectoral economic cooperation to enhance mutual stakes in the bilateral relationship so that they can cope with differences of outlook on some issues. Countries join to promote shared interests, and join with other countries to promote other interests. This independence of action is essential for a country working towards a multipolar world order.”

He goes on to say that, “the vibrancy of India-Russia relations over the next decade would, therefore, depend both on how their governments implement their stated intensions- dealing with the headwinds of perceptions- and on the response of both countries to changes in the external environment.”